By Anthony Fensom
Higher exports and prices have sparked a wave of new projects in Australia’s copper sector, with the industry seen as essential to the world’s energy transition.
On 20 September, copper was trading at US$9380 per tonne, after having hit record highs in May 2024 of more than US$11,000 per tonne.
Known as ‘Dr Copper’ for its role as a barometer of the health of the global economy, copper received a boost on 19 September after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point, boosting expectations of a ‘soft landing’ in the world’s biggest economy.
Analysts see prices moving higher, albeit below previous lofty expectations. In early September, Goldman Sachs cut its 2025 forecast from US$15,000 per tonne to US$10,100 amid concerns of short-term oversupply and weaker demand from China.
Bank of America analysts also see copper rising above US$10,000 per tonne in 2025 due to continued high demand, constrained supply and increased investment in energy transition projects.
ANZ Research also sees copper trading around US$10,000 per tonne in 2025, with the bank’s analysts warning of supply risks in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer.
Pointing to wages disputes and other production issues at Chilean mines, the bank said it expected at least six per cent of global copper output to be disrupted in 2024.
‘Even if just a fraction of the upcoming labour negotiations results in lost supply, our market deficit in copper is likely to increase. This should offset any concerns over weaker demand in coming months,’ ANZ Research’s Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari said in a 15 August report.
The Australian Government’s resources forecaster also sees higher prices ahead. The Office of the Chief Economist has predicted that LME copper prices will average around US$9500 per tonne in 2024, up from US$8700 in 2023, rising to US$9970 in 2026 on ‘strong growth in global demand’.
‘Rising consumption of copper from end uses such as power grid infrastructure and clean energy power generation are expected to offset moderating demand from sectors such as residential construction and manufacturing,’ it reports in the June 2024 Resources and Energy Quarterly.
‘Higher prices will be driven by stronger consumption in copper-intensive sectors such as construction, power grid infrastructure, electric vehicles and energy transition manufacturing,’ the report adds.
Globally, the forecaster sees consumption growing by about 2.1 per cent in 2024. China and the United States are expected to account for the bulk of this growth, driven by rising manufacturing activity and energy infrastructure investment.
Australian export, production growth
Higher prices are expected to boost Australia’s copper export earnings to around $15.8 billion in fiscal 2025, rising to $17 billion in fiscal 2026.
Australian copper production is also increasing, with the government forecaster expecting 800,000 tonnes output in fiscal 2025, rising to 875,000 tonnes in fiscal 2026. The projected growth is expected to come from new projects and expansions of existing operations.
In South Australia, Hillgrove Resources’ Kanmantoo copper mine started production in early 2024, with the mine expected to add around 43,500 tonnes per year to Australian mine production.
The Hillside copper mine in South Australia is also expected to commence production in 2026, adding an estimated 42,000 tonnes per annum.
BHP’s acquisition of OZ Minerals in May 2024 saw the consolidation of Olympic Dam, Carrapateena and Prominent Hill into a new entity, Copper South Australia. The ‘Big Australian’ is now planning to increase copper production to 500,000 tonnes annually by the early 2030s, up substantially from the 322,000 tonnes produced in fiscal 2024.
In Western Australia, various new projects are expected to commence production in the near term. Caravel Minerals aims to start production in early 2026, targeting around 65,000 tonnes annually; AuKing Mining aims to start operations at its Koongie Park project; Cyprium Metals aims to restart the Nifty copper mine; and Develop Global is advancing its Sulphur Springs project.
In September, Anax and Artemis Resources announced a ‘Pilbara copper alliance’ under which Artemis’s copper would be processed at the proposed Whim Creek processing hub, becoming a ‘substantial’ Western Australian copper producer.
Collectively, the new copper projects could add around 75,000 tonnes to Australia’s annual production capacity in the medium term, according to the Office of the Chief Economist.
In Queensland, the planned closure of Glencore’s Mount Isa copper mines and concentrator will take place in the second half of 2025; however, its copper smelter in Mount Isa and refinery in Townsville are expected to continue operating until the end of the decade, subject to additional capital investment.
New projects could offset some of the lost production. In August 2024, Carnaby Resources announced a ‘new copper discovery’ at its Greater Duchess copper–gold project in Mount Isa, which it described as ‘extremely exciting’.
South African miner Harmony Gold is also advancing its Eva copper project, with a final investment decision expected in 2026.
Brisbane-based Superior Resources is focused on the Lucky Creek (Greenvale) porphyry belt located in north‑east Queensland, which includes its Bottletree porphyry copper project.
‘Superior has long recognised the copper potential within the Lucky Creek corridor; however, recent exploration drilling at Bottletree, coupled with regional geological investigations over several years, has enabled the characterisation of the Lucky Creek corridor as a fossil island arc porphyry province, hosting numerous porphyry and potential porphyry systems recurring along a 50-kilometre zone,’ the company said in its 1 August announcement.
‘Superior is taking the lead with Tier 1 potential copper–gold porphyry exploration in this part of Australia.’
Copper exploration expenditure rose to $165 million in 2023, up 15 per cent on the prior year and continuing a general upward trend since 2017, according to the government report.
Ranked second in the world for copper resources in 2023, Australia has significant potential to elevate its status as the world’s fourth-largest exporter and ninth‑largest producer.
‘Copper is now a global “critical mineral”, and Australia has the resources to take advantage. With supply constrained and demand continuing to rise, there’s no better time to be exploring for the red metal,’ says Superior’s Managing Director, Peter Hwang.
