By Anthony Fensom
Gold is glowing brightly for investors, with the yellow metal continuing to hit record price highs in 2025. Is there anything that can stop the precious metal’s ascent?
The gold price hit a new record high of US$2886 per ounce on 7 February, clocking up its sixth consecutive week of gains and rising by around 40 per cent in a year amid increased safe haven demand and central bank buying.
In 2024, the gold price enjoyed its biggest annual gain in 14 years, rising 27 per cent, with more increases expected in 2025 amid falling global interest rates and continued geopolitical tensions and conflicts.
In early 2025, fears of a trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs spurred safe haven buying, while the gold market was also boosted by continued buying by China’s central bank.
‘Gold is a stand-out investment in uncertain times and as a hedge against inflation,’ says Peter Hwang, Managing Director of Queensland explorer Superior Resources.
‘All the macro-economic conditions are in place for further gains in prices this year, which will ultimately flow on to mining investment and stock prices.’
Price gains
Analysts are pointing to even higher prices ahead in 2025.
Citigroup has forecast that the gold price could reach US$3300 per ounce in 2025, adding to similarly bullish calls from Bank of America, JPMorgan and State Street Global Advisors of around US$3000.
ANZ Research expects the gold price will average US$2950 an ounce in 2025, noting that ‘there remains much unease about what lies ahead, which increases gold’s appeal as a store of value amid uncertain times’.
Total annual gold demand hit a record high of 4974 tonnes in 2024, totalling US$382 billion, driven by ‘strong, sustained central bank buying and growth in investment demand’, according to the World Gold Council’s (WGC’s) February 2025 Gold Demand Trends report.
Central banks bought more than 1000 tonnes of gold for the third straight year, while global investment demand increased 25 per cent year-on-year to 1180 tonnes, a four-year high spurred by exchange‑traded fund (ETF) buying.
Total gold supply also rose, increasing one per cent year-on-year to reach a new record high of 4794 tonnes, boosted by growth in mine production and recycling.
‘In 2025, we expect central banks to remain in the driving seat and gold ETF investors to join the fray, especially if we see lower, albeit volatile, interest rates,’ says WGC Senior Markets Analyst Louise Street.
‘On the other hand, jewellery weakness will likely continue as high gold prices and soft economic growth squeeze consumer spending power. Geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainty should be prevalent themes this year, supporting demand for gold as a store of wealth and hedge against risk.’
Higher gold prices have boosted the stock prices of Australia’s top gold producers, with Evolution Mining enjoying a 90 per cent annual gain, De Grey Mining up 82 per cent, Gold Road Resources rising 75 per cent and Ramelius Resources up 71 per cent, among other gainers.
These have buoyed the sentiment of the listed gold sector, which, as at January 2025, comprised around 170 gold miners, with market capitalisations ranging from $1.5 million to more than $17 billion.
The price gains have also spurred takeover activity, notably Northern Star Resources’ $5-billion bid for fellow Western Australian miner De Grey Mining, owner of the Hemi discovery in the Pilbara region.
Production boost
The Office of the Chief Economist sees higher prices increasing Australia’s gold export earnings to $34 billion in fiscal 2025, up 4.7 per cent on the prior year. Production is expected to reach 309 tonnes in fiscal 2026, driven by new projects and expansions, according to its December 2024 Resources and Energy Quarterly.
Among them, production is expected to continue ramping up at new projects including Pantoro’s Norseman project, Calidus’s Warrawoona gold project and Bellevue Gold’s namesake project. Genesis Minerals is ramping up underground mining at its Ulysses project, while Westgold’s Great Fingall project is expected to achieve first production during 2025.
In December 2024, Black Cat Syndicate announced the first gold pour at the restarted Paulsens gold operation in Western Australia, while Horizon Minerals achieved the first gold pour at its Boorara gold project near Kalgoorlie in January 2025, marking its transition into production.
Among expansions, Northern Star aims to more than double output at its Super Pit to 28 tonnes by fiscal 2029, up from 13 tonnes in fiscal 2023. Newmont also plans to extend the permit for its Cadia underground gold mine from 2031 to 2050, with annual production of around 35 tonnes a year.
Despite the price gains, Australia’s gold exploration expenditure dropped by nearly 10 per cent in the September quarter of 2024 to $301 million, accounting for 29 per cent of total mining exploration spending. Western Australia remained the focus, accounting for 78 per cent of total gold exploration expenditure, according to the government forecaster.
Among explorers, Superior Resources is progressing a feasibility study for its Steam Engine gold project in central Queensland, aiming to achieve early production ‘within two years’. A scoping study released in September 2024 showed robust economics for both toll treatment and standalone plant scenarios.
Also in Queensland, Iltani Resources announced some outstanding results from initial drilling at its Orient silver-indium project in Herberton, North Queensland, with the company planning to release an exploration target in the first quarter of 2025.
Australia’s position as the world’s third-largest gold producer and holding 22 per cent of gold resources, the largest global share, has the nation well placed to benefit from the current boom times for the precious metal.
And with gold prices projected to stay high in 2025, Australia’s gold miners see a bright future for the in‑demand precious metal.
‘Australia has enormous advantages – now is the time for all stakeholders to work together to capitalise on this golden opportunity for the mining industry,’ Hwang says.
